Every time there’s a headline about the Middle East or an OPEC meeting, oil moves. No other market reacts to global events as quickly or as clearly.
That’s what makes it one of the most tradeable markets, especially if you follow the news.
What Moves Oil
There are four key drivers. Learn these, and you’ll understand most price moves.
- Supply: When OPEC cuts production, prices usually rise.
If members produce more than expected, prices tend to fall. - Demand: Strong global growth increases demand and pushes oil higher.
Fears of recession reduce demand and push prices lower. - Geopolitics: In March 2026, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent surged to $100 per barrel within days. - The Dollar: Oil is priced in US dollars.
A weaker dollar usually means higher oil prices. A stronger dollar often pushes oil lower.
The Hormuz Lesson: Don’t Chase the Headline
When Brent hit $100, many traders rushed in and bought at the top.
Soon after, prices pulled back as markets started expecting a resolution. Late buyers were stopped out.
This is one of the most common beginner mistakes: buying after a big move instead of before it.
The key lesson: the biggest move happens when the news breaks, not when you read about it.
Wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
How to Size a $100 Trade
- Account: $100
- Risk: $10 (maximum 10%)
- Entry: Brent at $85.00
- Stop Loss: $83.50 (below recent support)
Position size: $10 ÷ $1.50 = 6.6 barrels
With 1:100 leverage, your $100 controls $10,000 worth of oil.
Leverage gives you access, but your stop loss is what protects you.
TP and SL: The Simple Rule
Set your Stop Loss (SL) below the nearest support level before entering the trade.
Set your Take Profit (TP) at least twice the distance of your SL.
If your SL is $1.50 away, your TP should be $3.00 away, targeting $88.00. This is called a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio. One winning trade can cover two losing ones.
As the trade moves in your favor, move your SL to your entry point. Now the worst-case outcome is breaking even.
The Bottom Line
Oil is driven by news you already follow.
Leverage makes even a $100 account powerful,
but only if you manage your risk and set your stops before entering.
The next oil move is coming.
The question is: will you be ready?
Glossary
Leverage: $100 can control $10,000 at 1:100. Amplifies both profits and losses.
Stop Loss (SL): Your exit if the trade goes against you. Always set it before entering.
Take Profit (TP): Your target exit. Aim for at least 2x your risk.
Support Level: A price level where oil previously stopped falling. Place your SL below it.
Brent Oil: The global benchmark for oil prices used in most international trades.
